CY Leung 99% Certain to be Next Chief Executive

Dinner with my mole in the civil service whose greatest claim to fame is to have sat on the Expert Group to Review the Operation of the Securities and Futures Market Regulatory Structure (in Hong Kong) proved more interesting than I was expecting as a result of a liquid lunch he'd recently had with a former member of the Executive Council.

After a few glasses of Château Latour (if you've ever wondered why swanky restaurants in Hong Kong always have this and Château Lafite on the wine list, the answer is really quite simple – they are the only two hideously expensive French reds that locals can actually pronounce), the Exco man leant conspiratorially over to my friend and whispered in his ear, "You hate Leung Chun Ying like everyone else, don't you?"

Without waiting for an answer, he went on, "He's a dead cert to replace Donald Tsang when his term expires next year."

The former Exco man then went on to explain why the current convenor of that august body was "99.% certain" to take the baton from Sir Don, if, that is, he can stoop low enough to make the exchange without dropping the thing.

First, Leung has a very strong pro-Beijing pedigree, making him, in the former Exco member’s words, a "professional red". His current status as a member of the National Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Chairman of the One Country Two Systems Research Institute is well known, but what is in danger of being forgotten is that while he was in his early forties he was appointed secretary-general (go to p. 6) of the influential Basic Law Consultative Committee, a sure sign of Beijing's blessing upon a rising star.

Secondly, and most unusually for a Hong Kong politico (or indeed a politican anywhere), his fervour for the Motherland and his hostility to those who believe in an open society built on democratic institutions are qualities he developed as a student in the 1970s and which he has never wavered from, even as he was taking advantage of Deng Xiao Ping's guff about "socialism with Chinese characteristics" to make himself rich As a young man, indeed, he would travel by rail to China to provide training free of charge to Mainland professionals.

In this regard, he stands in stark contrast to one of his competitors for the post, Rita Fan Hsu Lai Tai, who is considered suspect by the Communists on account of her close ties with former British Hong Kong Governor Sir David Wilson. The indecent haste with which this Commander of the Order of the British Empire made the switch to PRC lackey when cast aside by Chris Patten in 1992 also means that Fan is considered a chameleon by many in Hong Kong, not that I think Beijing will be too bothered by that. In fact, for those of a tyrannical bent, such flexibility is invariably considered more of a qualification for a top post rather than a disqualification.

Fan's CV is notable for its thinness. After a stint, according to the former Exco man, as director of student services at CY Leung's alma mater, the Hong Kong Polytechnic, Fan cut her political teeth in Wilson's Exco before abruptly announcing her retirement from politics when snubbed by Patten and joining Albert Yeung's Emperor Group. The handover gave her a new lease of life as she took on possibly the least onerous job in world politics, President (AKA Speaker) of the Legislative Council, a post she clung onto for ten years.

Fan's most recent sinecure is as a steward for the Hong Kong Jockey Club, a position that demands the office-holder be a racing "aficianado". In a recent interview in which she tried to repair the damage inflicted in 2004 when she described Leung as being unsuitable for Hong Kong's top job, Fan drew on her wide-ranging knowledge of horse-racing to make a stultifyingly uninteresting comparison between her two rivals for the post, Leung and Henry Tang Ying Yen.

"One is in an upbeat mood for a battle, working hard and is performing quite well in morning exercise. Another one, working in the government, appears easy and relaxed but may have high potential."

What she didn't mention is that Tang has the obvious advantage of looking like a horse.

But the last word should go to the ex-Exco man, not least because it sums up what's wrong with Hong Kong.

"You know," he said, "there's another reason why CY Leung is hated by Legislative Councillors. He's too smart – a real stickler for details; a hard worker. I should know; I worked with him for nearly ten years. If he gets the job, the circus will have much less to criticise the government for, and will have to find something useful to do to justify their existence."

Ouch!